[WarDekar]

You would think they would do this, but they certainly don't do a good job of it considering almost no coach in the NFL gets it right consistently outside of Belichick. Presumably most of them are still using old 4th down and 2 point conversion charts from decades ago, either that or their risk-aversion is just so high that they're afraid to make the obviously statistically correct call.

[adharmad]

That's one of the surprises in NFL. If you read Gregg Easterbrook (Tuesday morning quarterback on espn), he frequently points out stastically obvious plays that coaches should have called, but they dont! It is hard to believe that NFL head coaches with their large entourage of assistant coaches do not have the same information that a writer on espn has!

The NFL actually boils down to players making plays. There is no rocket science involved (although coaches are regularly hailed as "geniuses"). If the playbook is made too complicated, players will have a hard time learning it. The trick (in my opinion) is to have your players accurately anticipate the opposition's moves. Belichick's playbook is not the most complex, but it definitely geared towards exploiting his opposition's weaknesses, and simple enough to be understood/implemented by the players on field.

[Anechoic]

It is hard to believe that NFL head coaches with their large entourage of assistant coaches do not have the same information that a writer on espn has!

It's not that the coaches don't have the info, it's that no play is 100% effective and coaches have to shoulder the blame if thet make a perceived "risky" call (even if it's the statisyicly best play) and it fails.

Remember the decision to go for it when the Pats were facing fourth and 2 on the Colt's 28 yard line in '09? It was statistically the best option, but since they didn't convert, Belichick's been hammered for that decision ever since. If a coach on the bubble makes that call and the team doesn't convert, he's probably gone the next year. As TMQ points out, it's much safer for the coach to punt in that situation, and if the team looses it will be the players who get the blame.

[adharmad]

Yep I remember the 4th and 2 against Colts. However, that decision was more of a hit-or-miss.

Think of the countless times a team has the ball with 2-3 mins to go. Three incomplete passes and a punt. The other team scores in the last 2 mins and wins. Except, that it was 3 rushes, it would have taken enough time off the clock to keep the ball (if they get the first down) and keep the other team from getting the ball.