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by mark_l_watson 1114 days ago
I hope it is far in the future but you are probably correct that losing reserve currency status may occur much faster than the pundits say it will. I worry that weaponizing the dollar with excessive sanctions will hurry this process, with not much real value to US citizens.
2 comments
NemoNobody 1114 days ago
What currency is stable enough to replace the Dollar? Very likely we repeat the Cold War - Western countries will definitely continue to use the Dollar.

I wouldn't want to use the Yuan considering the frequent government manipulation of the currency.

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mark_l_watson 1114 days ago
Fair question! If I had to guess: the USA + Europe + Canada + Australia + a few other countries will form one trading block, and BRICS + about 20 other countries will form a separate trading block. The different trading blocks will use different reserve currencies. The BRICS+ trading block would use a basket of currencies and our trading block would use the US dollar, or a basket of currencies with the dollar being the largest percentage in the basket.

I love to travel and visit other countries and meet people. My hope is that a tourist will continue to be able to easily visit any country, even when the world bifurcates into two trading blocks.

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dilyevsky 1114 days ago
It’s not just about stability (and rmb is basically pegged to dollar anyway) - you also need to run a deficit and that’s not something China is willing or able to do for foreseeable future
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photonbeam 1114 days ago
> you also need to run a deficit

Why is this needed?

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nly 1114 days ago
> > you also need to run a deficit

> Why is this needed?

At a guess...being the worlds reserve currency creates demand for your currency which drives it's price up. This is bad in general because it means your exports become more expensive. The way you deal with that is to create debt to export in the form of US treasuries, which foreigners can then buy. One way to create treasuries is to create a public deficit (not strictly necessarily, you could raise money even with a surplus and then invest it)

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shreyshnaccount 1114 days ago
Probably only the euro. The yuan isn't the best option for reasons you mention, and the next largest reserve which countries hold is only the euro. Link to interesting podcast episode about exactly that: The Red Line Podcast https://open.spotify.com/episode/6DVtj0E1v6pRgAiZwytmbo
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dilyevsky 1114 days ago
You think CCP will not try to impose its whims on you? Doesn’t matter which currency it is when your bank account is frozen
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