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by simmerup 1113 days ago
> What can an individual do to not suffer?

You should be asking what an individual can do to not starve to death or die of over heating.

Most answers are: move to a rich, powerful country not in the danger zone

2 comments

> Most answers are: move to a rich, powerful country not in the danger zone

There might not be any. Migration pressure from uninhabitable areas will keep mounting, and some of the countries in the "danger zone" have nukes.

If you are invoking rather insane scenarios - why rule out the use of bioweapons? Why rule out geoengineering?
>Why rule out geoengineering?

If there was a viable geoengineering technology available, we'd be using it right now. Assuming that something will pop up is wishful thinking.

There are a bunch of carbon sequestration technologies that work right now. The question is who is going to pay for them to be deployed at scale?
What's insane about those scenarios?
Because if large-scale nuclear or biological war is reasonable likely then climate change really doesn't matter anyway. End of the world scenarios are always an easy "sell" but they are usually not helpful for constructive progress.

Before nuclear war, lots of constructive things like geoengineering could happen.

You're looking at it from the wrong end. Nuclear war seems unlikely now, but it might become reasonable once half of the world's population is banging on the borders of the other half.

Do you think if e.g. India or Pakistan start experiencing lethal wet-bulb temperatures and people there decide to mass-migrate to survivable lands, only to be stopped at the border and denied entry, will those people and these countries just throw their hands up in the air, seeing there's nothing they could do, and accept imminent death? Or maybe they'll try to threaten or force to be let in, using any means available, up to and including nuclear weapons?

(This applies to all nuclear-armed countries - I mentioned these two, because AFAIK they'll be the first nuclear powers likely to experience lethal wet-bulb temperatures - but that's not the only way climate change could make a country mass-evacuate, and such other factors could hit other nuclear powers first.)

So they commit suicide to escape deadly temperatures? If they nuke the countries they want to move to - how does that play out? The choices of providing local cooling, putting more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, shades in space etc. will all look more attractive than extended suicide. That also includes negotiating solutions.
Single countries will have a hard time doing geoengineering at scale. It will be much easier to start a war over local resources, like water.
New Zealand is always the obvious "lifeboat". It's a long way from populated area so difficult to get there, and it's fairly easy to sink any ships that try. It's in the southern hemisphere so will be protected from the majority of nuclear war which would be in the northern hemisphere.
Unless someone with nukes decides to threaten NZ to open up the borders for their people, or else.

With global changes this big, we can't expect the usual MAD Mexican Standoff a couple big powers to keep everyone safe. It may be that all nuclear powers (or all that remained after a brief nuclear war) will decide together to politely ask NZ to open up or else.

Or else what ? They half nuke the place they intend to escape to ?
Have you ever seen a child smash a toy they tried to steal rather than give it back?
Can't say that I have.

I say the people threatening with nukes here would turn to more subtle methods of invasion, that's their objectives. They won't destroy it because they can't have it. That'd be a waste of nukes.

Now is there someone threatening another country with nukes at the moment but not using them because he knows that'd be useless anyway and would it prove my point ?

Or spit in its food so no one else grabs it.
somewhat ironically, widespread nuclear war might actual pare back human population to a point where emissions dramatically declined.
Its the first place I'm sending my shelter vent seeking drones so don't bother.
much or all of it is under water...
What counts as a rich powerful country in this instance?

China? Norway? UAE? I feel like they will all fare very differently