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by RC_ITR 1122 days ago
I really can't emphasize enough that residential in SF generates $55/sqft/year, which in almost every US market outside NYC, is more than you get for commercial anyway. If SF commercial generates meaningfully less than $55/sqft/year (which it is clearly on track to do), you don't need to force anyone to do anything.

To your capital allocation point, you're lucky to get $40/sqft/year in DC.

This is real money you're talking about. It's not some pie in the sky idea that a residential building in SF is profitable.

The line of argument that conversion can't be done is just repeating things that were true before the pandemic and that commercial lenders/developers hope will be true again.

If buildings default, all the commercial owners/lenders eat the capital loss (hence their current loud and public press tour about why conversions are not feasible), a new buyer buys at a lower cost basis and then converts. Why is that extremely practical outcome so outlandish?

SF office buildings are already trading at 75% 2019 prices. If you (as the new low cost basis buyer) can yield even 25% more by residential converting why wouldn't you?