[nradov]

Nope, there is a huge net change because interest rates have increased. Mortgage rates bottomed out in 2020 at about 2.65%, so the monthly payment on a $300K mortgage was only $1209. Now at 5.87% the payment would be $1774.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

[woobar]

Why are you comparing to the absolute minimum? Didn't people use to have mortgages before 2020? My first house was close to $300K, mortgage was 6.5%. No one was crying about this back then.

[nradov]

I am comparing to the absolute minimum because most homeowners with decent credit ratings refinanced their loans a couple years ago near the minimum. Now they can't afford to sell their current homes and buy in a different area because the monthly payments would be unaffordable (unless they buy in a much cheaper area or a much smaller home).

I don't think anyone is crying about it but this is reducing labor mobility and slowing down economic growth. It's one of the unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates due to inflation.

[woobar]

Wait a second. They were able to pay that mortgage before they refinanced, right? And the rates 5 years ago were close to 5% (according to your chart). Suddenly rate get close to what was normal just five years ago and we are talking about most people not able to move.

[sokoloff]

The 2023 house they’re looking to buy costs more than the 2018 house they could afford at 5%.

We bought in 2007. Our house more than doubled in price since then. I’m not sure I could afford to buy it now if I was a typical 20% down buyer.

[woobar]

I will not argue about someone's ability to buy a new house in the current environment. But in this thread discussion is focused on existing homeowners moving to a new house.

In your case (assuming $300K original house price) you will sell it for $600K, net $264K profits after commissions. Use profits plus $60K of original downpayment and any additional equity in the old house as a downpayment for a similar house at $600K. The new mortgage will be similar to one you had in 2007. Same rate and most likely smaller principal. Not a big difference.

[sokoloff]

All true (except multiply all those dollar figures by a factor of 4).

The problem is that I'd be taking on a new 30-year mortgage while being about 10 years away from retirement rather than ~26 years away from retirement, which has certain implications on my ability to afford that mortgage over its full term.

[Rebelgecko]

Why didn't you refinance in 2020-2022 when interest rates were so much lower? If the prevailing rate is 3%, you're leaving money on the table by sticking with your original mortgage (unless it's almost paid off)

[woobar]

My point was that paying 6.5% on a $300K mortgage was a normal thing just 15 years ago. In fact it did not stop anyone from buying in the run to the great recession (aka "subprime mortgage crisis").

I don't have mortgage now, so no, I am not leaving money on the table.