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Let's call the other guys "Gatekeepers" (Open.AI, Google with Bard, etc). Option 1: none. Most of the value will be captured by Gatekeepers Option 2: Gatekeepers will partially commoditize their service, and on top of them, several startups will thrive by creating something not easily replicable by Gatekeepers (via patents, via speed of execution, via viral growth, etc). Example: biggest GPT-powered media startup will compete with Netflix. Another: biggest GPT-powered e-learning startup will compete with higher ed - Stanford, MIT, etc. Option 3: A single GPT-powered Coding startup will become > $100B. My bet is on Replit. (disclaimer: very early investor). When you hire a programmer, much like you pay for Jira, AWS and such, you will also pay for Replit. This partially overlaps with e-learning (see above). Option 4: there's an even bigger revolution coming in AI, and it's not in the segment owned by LLMs. Or, it's a different interpretation of LLMs. Could it be... finally a real self-driving car? Option 5, very unlikely: regulation will stifle competition and innovation, and most things will be killed by governments. Perhaps something smart can be said about US vs China. WWIII will be fought with virtual agents powered by GPT, over Twitter. Elon Musk will be kidnapped by GPT-6. /s What else? |
A start up in the: Agents, Agent frameworks, Tool Hubs: Huggingface, LangChain. Are probably the only "startups" that have a shot.
As for Data lakes I suppose that's true but alot of companies have their data in the cloud now. so I don't know how much data security/privacy/cost is a barrier for these gatekeeper companies.
It also all depends on how long AI is weak at using and generating a UI.