[ggm]

Its a two-parter.

1) the hype machine is sickening. Its the crypto bros but on steroids and because $$$ the various money pundits have bought in. And philosophers. Excluding the people who should know better and use terms-of-art in ways which are misunderstood, the pundits are doing what they do based on their belief they know what the terms of art mean. A word like "hallucinate" implies a consciousness. They don't know its a co-opted term for when a model does crazy shit (even using the word crazy implies something)

2) the concerns Hinton and others express about regulation, and a need for oversight are real. Forget the hype machine, call these "expert systems" and reflect back on the machine assisted admissions model for the UK medical schools which entrenched "men get a +2 boost, women -2" enrollment because of how they modelled "do it like now"

So I am over the hype, and I am also thinking some of the back story "..wait" stuff is really critical.

I don't believe its heading to AGI. I don't believe its even close. I am super concerned about its (mis)application to the real world. Student essays? less concerned. we've dealt with calculators before. Applying gatekeeping to medicine or social services? or writing translations of instructions for machines which have consequences in the real world? Ruh-oh...

Watson was trumpeted as gods gift to diagnosticians. Then scales fell from their eyes. That said, the newer models image analysis and detection of early stage illness eg pancreatic cancer, thats truly exciting. I don't want scales to have to fall from anyone's eyes yet.

If we start firing diagnosticians before its field proven for a decade, we fucked up. If we use it as an adjunct to improve efficiency and reduce mis-diagnosis, I'm there.

[bleep_bloop]

> reflect back on the machine assisted admissions model for the UK medical schools which entrenched "men get a +2 boost, women -2" enrollment because of how they modelled "do it like now"

Would you happen to have any further reading on this please, as a Brit this somehow passed me by without me ever hearing about it, sounds fascinating.

[hackcasual]

What's really interesting to me is how a decent chunk of the voices behind wait and register are involved in the AI systems themselves. I'm guessing it's hoping to kick the ladder out from above

[ggm]

Nah, I think thats cynicism speak. For some of them, they're leaving the big shops because their concerns got buried in a rush to monetize. And because the time for their theoretics may be moving, and they're bored and don't need the hassle. Somebody like Hinton is my age +5, he's late stage career. Nobody gives him shit, he does what he wants.

Kicking the ladder out to stop young pups isn't in his model. Why would he do that? His legacy is secure.

I'm not convinced Scott Aarenson is doing his job right atm. He needs to be more "lets wait and see" and less "we've got a fix for this in planning. His "we have a fix for typing the words as AI sourced" went very quiet.