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by ma2rten 1126 days ago
It seems very ignorant to bet against AI given all the progress that have been made in that last year (!).
6 comments

It seems intellectually lazy to assume that the present continues reliably into the future. You need a more concrete argument than "we've been making progress so far so we'll keep making progress", or if you're on the other side of the argument, you need something better than "this hasn't happened yet so it will never happen".
Most people in 1969 would probably say the same about betting against humans on Mars well before the end of the 20th century.
Two entirely separate fields, both with a similar problem: not good enough. Impressive, but makes mistakes and an 80% solution is not what you want for self-driving cars.
I would struggle to risk my life and my family on even a 99% solution. Is a FSD wants to drive me head on to a railway one day, which has happened, I think I'd rather have been at the wheel. That's just me though. I view my life as mission critical.
The progress recently has been with LLM. Great when you want to talk to your car or car needs to read street sign. Not useful if want to drive the car. It is possible that the techniques transfer over but self-driving is pretty different domain. My guess is that can share general techniques but the LLM breakthrough isn’t useful for self-driving.
If the progress of neutral networks-based AI has thought me anything then I expect more and more applications where it's amazingly capable some time, capable most of the time and completely fails still relatively often.

I am really skeptical at this point if it can ever master something to the point where we can safely trust our lives with it.

It seems overly optimistic to expect a breakthrough.