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by funnymony 1128 days ago
Lets say EV cut co2 emissions by factor of 100x for each km traveled.

Lets say number of cars in total follows exponential progression, 5% growth per year.

It follows that after 100 years due to growth co2 gets back to original level. (Log100/log1.05=94)

EVs are required bandaid, but degrowth will come eventually. (Possibly due to climate change supply will decrease and so will consumption)

4 comments

Those estimates are unrealistic regardless of any potential degrowth scenario. You'll run out of drivers and/or roads way before the 100 year mark.
I must concede: 1000x increase in driver count is too far fetched.

Though if forever growth is assumed, and goal post is moved to co2 total instead of per km, then some options exist to eat up that 1000x saving: Owning more than one vehicle per person, buying new automobile more frequently, moving to bigger, better and powerfuler cars.

Why would the number of cars grow by 5% for the next 100 years? Currently there are 1.4 billion cars. Projections say the world population will peak at 10 billion. Even if everyone would have a car, that’s only a sevenfold increase.
Sorry, degrowth is a nonsense, unless you want to see millions of people dead due to mass famine thanks to deindustrialization which needs to go hand in hand with degrowth.
The number of vehicles sold per year is going down, not up.