[faeriechangling]

Because making decisions on account of an asset's price being higher 2 years ago is just falling victim to price anchoring? Would Nvidia not be worth buying in 2020 because its price was much lower in 2018 and thus must be overvalued in 2020?

Investments should be based on the actual value of the company relative to its price, as well as relative to other investment oppertunities. Trying to making a profit by trading based on historical stock prices will get you whipped by quants who are already doing a much better job of that sort of thing than you could ever hope to do.

[zamnos]

But the question isn't "can I do better than teams of quants who do this 100 hrs/wk and are supported by institutions with effectively infinity dollars", but "can I make money on this"? If I buy NVDA at 283, will it go up? There's no guarantee it will, they could lose their edge to AMD and the GPU market could bottom out, but barring some calamity, the answer seems to be yes they well. There maybe other stocks out there that are better buys, but they're part of the SP500 for a reason.

[noogle]

That's a broader question, but in general: it doesn't matter what I think about Nvidia's business. I could be correct all the way, but if other people disagree with me, they won't pay me for the shares.

It's also not necessarily about the 2021 peak but why isn't Nvidia bigger? allegedly it's a necessary component to a technology that can replace hundreds of millions of people (worth trillions in economic output). And unlike OpenAI, Nvidia wins no matter which company wins the model competition.