[ilaksh]

Even if you (obviously falsely, in my opinion) believe that nothing gets qualitatively better than GPT-4, we know that the speed will increase by AT LEAST one order of magnitude. PaLM 2 seems marginally less intelligent than GPT-4 but is probably 10 or 20 times faster already.

Given that we have increased computing performance by more than a dozen orders of magnitude already and we are now optimizing for a very specific application, it is almost a given that we will get at least one more order of magnitude performance improvement in the near term.

There are also new approaches like crossbar arrays of memristors that, if we can make them work, promises at least two more orders of magnitude performance increases. Quite possibly more.

Claude can read a whole book and answer a question about it in 20 seconds. Not quite at GPT-4 level but no reason to believe that isn't possible in the near future.

Computing performance and efficiency have consistently increased by orders of magnitude as we leverage previous generations of systems to make improvements and when necessary invent new paradigms.