[sillysaurusx]

> Like the article, I am only talking about technology that already exists although the progress in deep learning is still super-exponential.

> We will certainly achieve AGI during this year as it will only require making these systems self-play like we did with AlphaGo -> AlphaZero -> MuZero. Self-play, or reinforcement learning with machine feedback will skyrocket the performance of these systems in language domain, which conveniently encompasses much of what is still missing for AGI.

There’s an important difference between exponential and sigmoidal curves. The early stages are indistinguishable, and not enough time has passed to judge.

Personally, I don’t think AGI is possible with current techniques. You say all that’s needed is self play or RLHF. This is categorically not true. It doesn’t even guarantee that AIs will ever care whether they’re alive, a fundamental property of sentience.

[ehsanu1]

There is likely a definitional gap here. Sentience is unnecessary for intelligence for my definition of intelligence, but agreeing on a common definition has been tough when we understand it so poorly.

I happen to also disagree with "caring" (requires definition) being relevant to sentience, defined as the ability to perceive or feel things.

[sillysaurusx]

I’m sympathetic to these arguments, but AGI to me is Data from Star Trek. I think most people would agree.

He has curiosity. The current gen of AIs don’t. They don’t even ask questions, let alone remember anything.

He has a capacity to get bored. He tries out guitar just because he wants to. He paints. He’s frustrated when the details aren’t right.

A lot of these traits are human. But that’s the whole point — we’re trying to make a wo/man in a machine.

I’ve never understood the hype, and I’m a researcher. It seems to me that there is a vast gulf between what AIs are capable of and anything that makes being human, human.

I believe they’ll get progressively better at intellectual tasks, though. That will be really disruptive.

[ribosometronome]

>It doesn’t even guarantee that AIs will ever care whether they’re alive, a fundamental property of sentience.

Since when?