[methodical]

I think a lot of people on here are for some reason believers in the idea that if a technology has detractors, then it must be another case of the steam engine, human flight, or some other technology that had doubters before completely revolutionizing our world. In reality, there is no such law of the universe that says that some technology will be wildly successful because it is heavily controversial, and, in some cases, it turns out that a lot people were correct in predicting a technology's short/long term uselessness (crypto, web3, AR). Every time some article is posted highlighting AI's shortcomings in relation to its posited ubiquity in professional settings about 10 people wax poetic about how the internet/cars/etc. were doubted heavily, when they clearly are not similar in nearly any regard. I wish we could appreciate new technology without blowing its applications out of proportion and then being disappointed when it falls short of an impossible bar, which is my main gripe with both AI doomers and people who are entirely dismissive of the technology (despite basically nobody saying anything of the sort).

[idopmstuff]

> I think a lot of people on here are for some reason believers in the idea that if a technology has detractors, then it must be another case of the steam engine, human flight, or some other technology that had doubters before completely revolutionizing our world.

I think that's a misinterpretation - I don't think that it's a revolutionary technology because it has detractors or because it's controversial; I think it's revolutionary because of its capabilities. Those comparisons just serve to point out that there are plenty of historical examples of people criticizing things that turned out to be revolutionary, and the same may well turn out to be the case here.

[sharemywin]

a couple observations in favor of AGI getting here quicker than we anticipate:

ChatGPT isn't an LLM it's a product(blackbox) with one part being an LLM.

Go, Chess, Dota 2 would be better examples of things that AI mastered.

"NVIDIA GPU computing has given the industry a path forward -- and will provide a 1,000X speed-up by 2025"

LLM agents do seem to work better than LLMs on their own.

[tim333]

Maybe but it's seemed obvious for decades that AI will be a revolutionary thing. Not so for web3 etc.