| > These two groups also have high defection rates of around 50%, Mormons and Modern Orthodox Judaism may well have high defection rates, but there are other conservative religious subcultures with much lower defection rates: both the Old Order Amish, and Hasidic/Haredi/ultra-Orthodox Judaism, have retention rates >80% (sometimes even >90%, depending on whose figures you go by). Why the difference in defection/retention rates? I think a big factor is both groups are more segregated from the mainstream – linguistically, geographically, and by lifestyle – which makes defection more costly, and hence discourages it. A related factor is that they both ostracise apostates – although, contrary to some perceptions, neither (in practice) completely bans contact between apostates and their families still inside, but they do put various limitations and restrictions on it. > but if current trends continue (always a big if in demographic studies) The idea that Old Order Amish or ultra-Orthodox Jews are some day going to abandon their established way of life is rather low. I don't think it would happen without some major external stressor forcing them into it – and even then, many of them will do everything they can to resist. I think current trends of secularisation and social liberalisation are likely to plateau at some point (probably very soon if not already). Secular progressive daydreams of "total victory" – religious conservatives dwindle and die out – are unlikely to ever come to pass. > I’m concerned that us secularists have no good answer to why anyone should have children and as I result I can see secularism dying out long term, which I consider a philosophical tragedy. If anyone has any answers I’d love to hear them, How do you define "secularism"? It is possible to believe in the existence of the "supernatural" yet also believe that mainstream society should strive for neutrality on questions about its nature – does that count as "secular"? In principle, I can't see why such a belief can't be pro-fecundity. It probably still can't compete at that with religious ultra-conservatives, but it still could do much better in that department than the current secular mainstream does. |