[anonylizard]

Many ultra-religious groups, that survive and thrive long term, know to build 'pressure valves' that allow discontents to peacefully leave.

The Amish have a rumspringa that gives every youth a chance to see the outside world, and choose to come back or not. I think about 10% don't come back, and that statistic has been stable for a long time.

The ultra-religious don't tend to accumulate much economic power, regardless of population size. So the constant waves of secular defects, despite being minority, could continue to heavily affect political and technical decision making, moderating religious influences.

Now, there are also other ultra-religious groups, like the Haredim, who like to 1. Receive government benefits. 2. Reject military service 3. Grab political power These groups will heavily destabilize their host nation, as they have already done to Israel. An Israel dominated by the Haredim, who don't fight, and don't pay much in taxes, and where all the secular have fleed. Will probably quickly get defeated by its neighbours, and start the exile all over again.