[deweller]

8 years ago, HN was a place full of optimism and excitement. I've noticed a marked increase in cynicism in this place.

Like most of the world, it suffers from extreme tribalism and group think.

I miss the former positive HN. And the positive world. sigh

[matrix_overload]

Startups used to be a way to create your own solution to a non-trivial problem, and make money off selling it to people that will benefit from it and enjoy it. It was a highly rewarding experience for those who didn't want to play corporate politics (or at least, play it to a lesser extent).

But then it attracted too many people that would just emulate the KPI in order to get funded, and instead of letting it crash and rise from the ashes, we lowered the interest rates and bailed out a bunch of "too big to fail" banks in 2008, pretty much guaranteeing viability of shitty investments. Oh, and when people started calling it out in 2012 with Occupy Wall Street, they were redirected using the centuries-old divide-and-conquer techniques.

So now it's a shell of former self. Founders try to create something that looks like a great company. VCs pour money in, hoping to resell to the next fool. Founders are now more like figureheads than idea-driven people. Most big successes (Uber, AirBnb) could be attributed more to regulatory capture than a revolutional way of doing something.

Smart people understand it very well and it doesn't make you very optimistic. You can pretend well enough to convince an average layperson, but deep inside you know the game is fake, and it kinda builds up. Notably, game-changers that are appreciated by users (rather than speculative investors) now mostly come from China (e.g. TikTok), because the vibe there (with all the downsides) is now closer to the "good old SV" than the current SV.

[MichaelZuo]

To be fair to Uber and AirBnB, they did introduce some genuinely novel innovations. But the business model does heavily rely on the non-technological aspects for their competitive advantage.

[tokai]

Non-technological aspects is an interesting euphemism for breaking the law.

[MichaelZuo]

Not in all jurisdictions. But granted in quite a few there are violations of the spirit of the law.

[throw9away6]

Yes the innovation came from pooling enough money that you don’t have to follow the law

[soulbadguy]

+1

[piloto_ciego]

The cynicism is an op, or something - because I don’t have the evidence to say it’s definitively an “op” - as the kids say.

But legitimately, there is a strong cynical bubble in the zeitgeist now, and it’s dangerous.

There are a few things this cynicism says.

1. “People suck and are terrible.” 2. “People are stupid.” 3. “We can’t change anything.” 4. “Great calamity is going to happen and we are powerless to stop it.”

This is a lie. The world doesn’t suck, it’s much better than it used to be, people aren’t terrible - if people were more bad than good on average we’d still be hitting each other with clubs and going Conan on people. We aren’t stupid - it’s just that the stupid people are louder. And while the possibilities for great calamity exist, they are not guaranteed.

This may be more emergent than anything else, but trust your neighbors, treat people nicely, and you - yes individually each of you - need to start trying to make the world better.

Nobody is going to do it for us. I know what it’s like to feel bleak, trust me I do - but that’s just a call to action. It’s not “techno optimism” we need - it’s optimism, there are radical solutions that don’t use a single transistor.

[nescioquid]

In reading about the Weimar Republic, I encountered an observation (I think it was by Hannah Arendt) that cynicism emerges from a society that no longer believes in itself. In trying to confirm the quote, I found perhaps a better quote to explain (found on Arend't wiki article):

>> ...leaders based their propaganda on the correct psychological assumption that, under such conditions, one could make people believe the most fantastic statements one day, and trust that if the next day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood, they would take refuge in cynicism; instead of deserting the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest that they had known all along that the statement was a lie and would admire the leaders for their superior tactical cleverness

This all sounds rather familiar and feels like more a cultural question than one of personal virtue.

[piloto_ciego]

I also think that cynicism is the path of least resistance.

It’s dangerous to be optimistic. When you’re excited about stuff and it doesn’t work out culturally you look like a moron, when you’re a cynic if you’re wrong nobody cares because we’re all lucky that things didn’t turn out shittily. When things do turn out poorly you look like a genius because “you predicted the calamity.”

The “easy money” comes from being a pessimist because you don’t have to commit to anything.

[switchbak]

Thank you. I think we really do need a return to some form of optimism. Growing up I was told endlessly that by now we'd be out of fossil fuels and things would be terrible for a variety of other reasons. Some of that has come to pass, some not, some has reversed (ozone).

Sometimes the positive effects of sustained efforts have had a real impact over time. Having a cynical and defeatist attitude works against that. I don't know the roots of those attitudes exactly, but from the people I know they're not related to climate change, the country's leader, cultural issues, etc. It's more like those are a good reason for them to be more vocal about their underlying cynicism which has different roots (family life, general temperament, etc).

We have real problems. Very big ones. A defeatist attitude will ensure we end up in the worst of all outcomes. I wonder if we just have too much change too fast for our society to keep up and figure out ways to function better with the new constraints.

Edit: clarification

[hutzlibu]

"The world doesn’t suck, it’s much better than it used to be"

Better then when and by what meassure?

It is quite subjective I think.

One satirical person offered this quote:

We optimized for the minimum of individual luck, to get the maximum of people.

I am not fully behind this quote, it is satirical, but I think there is too much truth behind it. Ecologically things look bad. Geopolitical the same.

But yes, the sun is still shining and spring is nice and we do are progressing to new technological heights every day. It is just how this awesome tech is used overwhelmingly, that is a bummer.

[SeasonalEnnui]

"Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World" is a book that makes an excellent attempt to answer this.

[hutzlibu]

Hm. From the description I am not really convinced. It starts with people think "rich gets richer, poor gets poorer" ... and then states this is all wrong.

Except, it is not, by all the data that I know.

E.g. "https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/global-income-inequal..."

[adampk]

Taleb makes the point that this is not as simple as it seems. It is not the same people staying rich.

https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d...

[moron4hire]

Isn't this book about the low-hanging fruit stuff like universal access to healthy drinking water? And isn't it about basically the course of history through the 20th century compared to the previous millennium? That's much more macro, world-wide kind of stuff than whether or not startups in developed countries nowadays feel almost exclusively exploitative versus how they felt innovative 15, 20 years ago.

[piloto_ciego]

They were just as exploitative 15 years ago (or 20, or 50).

We can still fix things. We can still change the world - and for the better. Largely we have to slough off the outdated and pernicious idea that “more money == better” first.

[skrebbel]

Fwiw to my memory, 8 years ago people complained about cynicism and negativism on HN just as much. Eg people never stopped quoting that famous top comment on Dropbox's HN launch (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8863#9224).

I strongly doubt this attitude ever changed. It's always been

    - first comments are dismissive gut reactions
    - a bit later some nuanced/positive comments arrive
    - depending on mood and luck, one or the other kind floats to the top

I mean how often have you read a super positive top comment that starts out complaining about all the negativism in the thread? It's super commonplace! HN is still full of optimism and excitement, and also middlebrow dismissal. Just give it a few hours for every topic.

[soco]

I can confirm this. If I happen to contradict some cynical comment, 5 minutes and I'm at minus-something. Then the positives start to build back up. Always. There could be some psychological explanation to this, why the quick reaction is negative and the better thought-of positive?

[creato]

I genuinely think HN has been overrun by influence operations designed to make people resigned to the world being terrible. It sounds stupid and paranoid, but I can’t explain the patterns I observe any other way. I think the way HN is operated makes it impossible to avoid: no real authentication other than an email address. It is (or at least was) a juicy target due to the concentration of influential people in an influential industry.

I’m specifically not going to post examples because that will invite the same old conversations to be rehashed, and any one example is useless anyways. People will claim confirmation bias and they may even be right.

[adampk]

I agree with you. A "everything is terrible" campaign. But who stands to gain?

[jackmott42]

The cynicism for me at least is a result of reality actually getting markedly worse (at least in the USA) over the last 10 years.

However, none of that has anything to do with fusion tech, so I remain hopeful about that!

[SeanAnderson]

It's admittedly a 12 year old YouTube, but I always liked watching this when I was feeling especially cynical about the overall trajectory of the world: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo

[nindalf]

Before clicking that link I wondered what I would recommend to people who were feeling cynical about the world. It's a book by Hans Rosling - Factfulness, and it turns out that's the guy in your video.

[jackmott42]

Sadly he is no longer with us to let us know how things have gone the last 10 years :(

[haswell]

I think it’s worth examining what we believe to be “reality”.

If your reality is the Internet, the apocalypse is upon us.

I’ve spent the past year reducing Internet one and increasing immersion in my local community and the world looks like a very different (better) place.

[rf15]

Maybe we just grew up? There is still plenty we are enthusiastic and positive about here, but discussion sure has become more nuanced.

[piloto_ciego]

Getting older is no excuse for cynicism.

[sebzim4500]

Cynicism has nothing to do with nuance.

[DubiousPusher]

Nor does unbounded positivity and optimism.

[switchbak]

Honestly I think in this case the subject is so complex you'd have to be an expert to separate the wheat from the chaff.

The techno optimists really do a lot of grifting these days (especially on YouTube), and the knee-jerk cynics are predictably annoying as well. The fact that a knowledgeable fusion insider is criticizing this speaks volumes to me, and his criticisms seem on point.

I'm a lay person so my take on it is effectively of zero value. And I don't think I'm the only one in this thread in that position :)

[sebzim4500]

I agree. I have nothing against the people sharing actual technical critisisms of the approach.

[haarts]

Is that feeling of yours actually founded in reality?

You can have a look! https://hackermoods.com/

(I only did a quick search)

[deweller]

This is a very interesting site. I'd love to see the analysis extend beyond 2016.

[healthysurf]

I'll be updating this in the coming weeks, and one of the features is going to be a toggle switch to "Make HN Happy" where it detects negative sentiments and rewords the comment into something constructive:

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/healthy-surf/

[adamdennis]

There’s still time to turn this thread/site around! Let’s keep it positive! “I’m looking forward to having reached the bottom; only up from here!”

[casey2]

It's pretty easy to find comments of people complaining about cynicism 11+ years ago.

[throwaway81523]

Look for the article "Geeks, mops, and sociopaths" which has been posted here a few times. We are currently in the sociopath part of the cycle, and people recognize that.

[throwawaysleep]

> And the positive world. sigh

It turned out to be a lie and a scam, so now people are more skeptical.

[Gud]

No it didn’t. The world is an amazing place. I am thankful to be alive.

[throw9away6]

Must be nice to be a 1% er

[Gud]

I'm not rich, I'm broke af. Doesn't stop me from choosing happiness. What's the alternative? Spend my life in misery? I tried that for a decade, didn't work out well for me. Now I choose to be happy. I choose to be the best I can be. Moping around sure as shit didn't fix my problems

[ohgodplsno]

Because the world has gotten markedly more shit for the vast majority of people, and YC is directly one of the reasons. Most of us have seen our disposable income drop, seen bullshit companies making connected dog feeders get funded dozens of millions by money-centralizing VCs, and overall have seen the world get more and more unfair, unbalanced and unjust. Major climate disruption is underway, wars are hitting all over the globe and governments are all getting more and more undemocratic.

Needless to say, the world doesn't exactly lend itself to positivity about yet another fucking startup promising you fusion powered dog feeders.