[nullsense]

By that logic a company could never achieve it's goals, and yet, they do. If humans can model other humans well enough to leverage their capabilities to execute long-term plans (at some scale) and AGI at least as capable as humans comes into existence, then it could do the same thing.

I think the AGI skeptics and the AGI skeptic-skeptics both suffer from framing issues. The main frame assumed seems to be "there will be a single AGI trying to do things". The cognitive lightcone of a single entity is likely to be limited, but an aggregate or collective of those entities can achieve vastly more ambitious goals.

The other frame that seems likely incorrect is the "all or nothing" and "all at once" approach to thinking about it. Hitler started out as a single cell and his existence was a continuum all the way from that single cell right through to that bunker. AGI will be a continuum too.

I'm incredibly confident that anyone incredibly confident in future predictions is wrong.