[benreesman]

I’m just completely at a loss for how so many people ostensibly so highly qualified even start with absurd, meaningless terms like “Artificial General Intelligence”, and then go on to conclude that there’s some kind of Moore’s Law going on around an exponent, an exponent that fucking Sam Altman has publicly disclaimed. The same showboat opportunist that has everyone changing their drawers over the same 10-20% better that these things have been getting every year since 2017 is managing investor expectations down, and everyone is losing their shit.

GPT-4 is a wildly impressive language model that represents an unprecedented engineering achievement as concerns any kind of trained model.

It’s still regarded. It makes mistakes so fundamental that I think any serious expert has long since decided that forcing language arbitrarily hard is clearly not to path to arbitrary reasoning. It’s at best a kind of accessible on-ramp into the latent space where better objective functions will someday not fuck up so much.

Is this a gold rush thing at the last desperate end of how to get noticed cashing in on hype? Is it legitimate fear based on too much bad science fiction? Is it pandering to Sam?

What the fuck is going on here?

[drewcoo]

> so many people ostensibly so highly qualified

> Is this a gold rush thing at the last desperate end of how to get noticed cashing in on hype?

https://www.themarginalian.org/2016/01/12/the-confidence-gam...

That article has a wonderful quote from Mark Twain. In part, this:

"The con is the oldest game there is. But it’s also one that is remarkably well suited to the modern age. If anything, the whirlwind advance of technology heralds a new golden age of the grift. Cons thrive in times of transition and fast change, when new things are happening and old ways of looking at the world no longer suffice."