I expect Tesla's rationalization will suddenly change when the cost for lidar units drops to hundreds of dollars. At that point, Waymo will have a huge head start.
Lidar cost has already dropped a lot. Waymo’s lidar on their I-Pace is 90% cheaper than the previous gen. We’re also seeing car manufacturers (GM, Volvo/Polestar, Mercedes, Chinese OEMs) include inexpensive lidar units for driver assistance.
Tesla’s problem is that they’ve promised their existing cars on the road are capable of full self driving. They can’t add hardware to them, so they will maintain the “camera is sufficient” stance for a long time.
Tesla’s problem is that they’ve promised their existing cars on the road are capable of full self driving. They can’t add hardware to them, so they will maintain the “camera is sufficient” stance for a long time.