> Do you think it's plausible that computers might someday have the potential to come down in cost-for-performance?
I have no idea. I do think though that it's a matter of energy, and that us, humans, are way better at creating it and putting it to use compared to potential future AGI-capable machines. Lungs + the blood system are just such an efficient thing, especially if you also look at the volume/space they occupy compared to whatever it is that would power that future AGI-capable machine.
> Cars eventually became cheaper than horses...
In large parts of the world donkeys, cows/oxes and horses are still cheaper and more efficient [1] compared to tractors, just look at many parts of India and most of Africa. Of course, us living in the West tend to not think about those parts of the world all that often, as we also tend to mostly think about the activities that we usually carry out (like having to travel between two distant cities, a relatively recent phenomenon).
[1] "More efficient" in the sense that if you're an African peasant and your tractor breaks down in the middle of no-where then you're out of luck, as the next tractor-repair shop might be hundreds of kms away. That means you won't get to plow your land, that means famine for you and your family. Compared to that, horses/oxes (to give just an example) are more resilient.
I have no idea. I do think though that it's a matter of energy, and that us, humans, are way better at creating it and putting it to use compared to potential future AGI-capable machines. Lungs + the blood system are just such an efficient thing, especially if you also look at the volume/space they occupy compared to whatever it is that would power that future AGI-capable machine.
> Cars eventually became cheaper than horses...
In large parts of the world donkeys, cows/oxes and horses are still cheaper and more efficient [1] compared to tractors, just look at many parts of India and most of Africa. Of course, us living in the West tend to not think about those parts of the world all that often, as we also tend to mostly think about the activities that we usually carry out (like having to travel between two distant cities, a relatively recent phenomenon).
[1] "More efficient" in the sense that if you're an African peasant and your tractor breaks down in the middle of no-where then you're out of luck, as the next tractor-repair shop might be hundreds of kms away. That means you won't get to plow your land, that means famine for you and your family. Compared to that, horses/oxes (to give just an example) are more resilient.