[pizzalife]

1. It's impossible!

2. It's possible but it's going to take forever

3. It's real and happening now but it's dangerous

4. It's not dangerous but it's annoying and blocking an intersection sometimes

5. It's not annoying but maybe they won't make money

we are here.

6. It makes money but what about drivers

7. It works in cities but what about suburbs

8. It works in suburbs but what about rural areas

9. This city in Turkmenistan is the last place on earth without any autonomous vehicles and visiting is like getting into a time machine

[dekhn]

hopefully we get to 8 before waymo.com posts "An Update on Waymo self-driving cars" and kills the project. That said, this is one project that google really seems to have invested for the long-term.

[revelio]

Counterpoint: Concord, Google Glass, etc. Just because something can be achieved technologically, doesn't mean there is demand for it at the price you'd need to charge for it to make sense.

[rvnx]

Big difference though, nobody needed Google Glass, Magic Leap, FB Metaverse, or the feature that adds a fart sound in a Tesla.

Almost anyone who needs transportation would use such taxis if they become affordable.

[revelio]

Don't get me wrong. Self driving taxis are cool. I'd like to use Waymo if it were launched where I live, at that price.

But that's a very large set of very large assumptions, stacked on top of each other! I can immediately think of lots of ways it can go wrong:

1. The economics may never work.

2. The "can't speed won't speed" problem may prove politically unsolvable, meaning people end up preferring taxis who avoid liability by being decentralized.

3. Google's core business may falter before Waymo manages to become financially independent, and in the absence of Waymo other competitors may decide it's no longer worth the investment vs Tesla-style incrementalism.

4. Public transport isn't going anywhere in high density cities simply due to limited road capacity.

5. Many people may simply prefer having their own cars even if Waymo taxis are everywhere, simply because you can't beat the latency of walking to your own driveway.

But the core problem is going to be price. Taxi drivers are cheap. For years people said Uber/Lyft would build up brand loyalty, raise prices and start making money any day now. After all it's ultimately just a ridehailing app, it's not that hard to make, so how can they not make a decent business out of it? Yet they never did get to that point even though it's a million times easier. Waymo not only has to find a way to turn a regular weekly profit taking into account their ultra-expensive staff, hardware, energy costs, support costs, etc but then maybe even one day yield enough profit to pay off the initial investment! All of that whilst competing in a super low margin market? Maybe it can be done but when I see the reasons people are giving here for why they like Waymo cars (clean, safe, etc) I'm not seeing the basis of a great company. It sounds a lot like the reasons I heard when Uber first appeared, even. And it's certainly WAY easier to compete on those aspects whilst still using human drivers.

Perhaps one day yes, presumably someone will get self-driving taxis to the point of being a sustainable business, but it might well be writeoff for Google just like it was for Uber.

[Dylan16807]

If "makes money" is taking in any revenue at all then it should be much higher in the list.

Also I don't think they've reached "not annoying" yet.