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by jimmytucson 1137 days ago
The notion that this CEO and hundreds of others made bad decisions by over-hiring is sensible, but the fact that so many made the same mistake at the same time makes me second-order think this. As cruel as it sounds, what if over-hiring was a good long term decision? What would that imply?

It would mean that _not_ hiring aggressively in a high-inflation period is harmful to business. To me, that is far more interesting to think about than CEOs making dumb mistakes and not getting punished for it because life isn't fair...

2 comments

What if their decision making is just doing what everyone else is doing?
I feel like not hiring aggressively in a _low-interest-rate environment_ is harmful to your business.

Assuming you have some productive use for the incremental employees, the discounted returns from those employees' contributions are decreased by an uncertainty factor and by the risk-free interest rate. When that latter term is near zero, hiring is restricted by the uncertainty of their performance and projects assigned to, meaning you get a lot of hiring by sensible, data-driven management teams.