[xk_id]

Raising rates is a very poor instrument for fixing supply-driven inflation. Even if it forces suppliers to temporarily lower their prices, as soon as rates are lowered again and economic activity picks back up and demand returns, inflation will return with a vengeance too. Destroying demand does nothing to fix the supply chain problems behind current inflation (which you already mentioned: war, energy, deglobalisation, china lockdowns etc). It’s a pointless, painful exercise and it’s probably being done by the fed only to maintain the appearance of fulfilling their expected role. The truth is the fed is powerless and cannot fix the problem.

[tsjackson]

I actually 100% agree with this comment, except the "only being done to maintain appearances" part. A blunt instrument is better than no instrument. By raising interest rates, the fed is reducing average inflation by cooling the market across the board (though unfortunately with very little direct effect on the primary driver of energy consumption, which is very inelastic). Without cooling the economy a bit, normal inflation plus the supply side drivers could lead to hyperinflation, and/or stagflation.

Supply chain issues won't sort themselves out for 3-4 years, possibly more - it can take at least that long to get a new domestic semiconductor chip fab or solar panel factory from the idea stage to full capacity. And if you are a business, the level of uncertainty as to what 4 years from now will look like makes a huge investment like that less than desirable. (Source: I work for businesses in these spaces).

Businesses just aren't as nimble as we were led to believe, and it's going to be a bumpy few decades in all likelihood, assuming China stays on the path of no-dissent nationalism and the U.S. stays on the path of re-industrialization.

In the long run, we need to transition the energy grid to electric/renewables/storage as fast as possible to get off of the fossil fuel roller coaster that has caused every major inflationary event. In the medium-term, we need to reduce impediments to building physical things in our country, so that businesses can respond more quickly to increases in prices by increasing supply.