[Sesse__]

Carlsen was pretty clear on this all along. He said there was a _slight_ chance of him changing his mind if Firouzja won the Candidates, which he was nowhere near doing. The announcement after the Candidates was just the final confirmation. Everybody playing knew very well that the second spot would give them a very real shot at playing the WCC, Ding and Nakamura included.

[mtlmtlmtlmtl]

That's true. But Carlsen still leaving the possibility meant it was always going to be a match in this cycle. So if Carlsen forfeiting should have consequences for the way the cycle is structured it should be now, after the match, not instead of it

Btw, are you in any way responsible for analysis.sesse.net? I've been using it every day!

[Sesse__]

I don't think Carlsen demanded changing the cycle, so indeed. (Well, he voiced opinions ten years ago, but this time around, there were no negotiations AFAIK. Just him plain stating he wasn't likely to show up.)

a.s.n is my site, yes. I haven't been following this match as closely as the previous ones, so it's been a bit delayed some days (and I haven't bothered dealing with some bugs in the source PGN, so the clocks have been off at times).