[signatoremo]

> you may well lose the bet if everyone else believes the pundit

Can you give a real life example of when a pundit giving a predict against the actual supply that had everyone buy-in? Says, oil price goes down even when demand is hot?

[tsimionescu]

The price of oil is a particularly bad example, since it is heavily controlled everywhere in the world, as is supply. The international price of oil is largely set by OPEC or the USA or a few other countries (depending on geographical region).

Also, this type of pundit influence is common with the price of stocks. It also happened with the price of natural gas in Europe last year, when it increased based on lack of confidence in reserves that turned out to be misplaced, and never really recovered.

[PinkRidingHood]

An inverse example would be any bubble, for example the housing bubble that happened over a decade ago. Prediction of house prices going up eventually reached a point where house prices were going up, despite low "actual demand" (of course, if you count "demand for investment", then prices are absolutely a measure of that).