[simonster]

For the best AI researchers, creating better AI systems takes only time and compute. If we can create systems with the ability to do anything at the level of the best human, as Jacob believes is possible, then these systems can do AI research at the level of the best human, and creating better AI systems is mostly a matter of compute. (AI systems are easy to copy, so time is irrelevant to the extent that the research can be parallelized.) In this scenario, the paradigm-changing breakthroughs can come from the AI system itself.

The AI system would be bottlenecked by data in the sense that it will have to run experiments, but it's not clear that it needs a new paradigm to resolve this bottleneck. It just has to propose an experiment and interpret its results. So it writes code, and the experimental outcome gets fed back into the model as any other normal input. As an AI researcher, I'd like to believe that this is not going to happen anytime soon, but I'm not sure we're far.

[platz]

Did you read the whole article? Especially the part about the quality of the training data to do anything at the level of the best human.

What exactly do you think is the pattern is that humans can recognize, in the training data that would be required to do "AI Research"?

[simonster]

I’m not sure I understand what you’re getting at. It doesn’t seem hard for a top AI lab to get extremely detailed data regarding how top AI researchers perform research. It’s probably significantly easier than collecting data from experts in other fields.

[auggierose]

> As an AI researcher, ...

I see what you did there.

[yinser]

HN has always been a bit of a spitting contest. ChatGPT is too tempting to the narcissists who want to get on here and sound smart. I imagine this site like all other open comment sites is filled with 80% of the comments by 2% of a very chronically vocal minority. Do you want to be an expert? Do the thing. Do you want to sound like an expert? Talk about the thing on forums.

[simonster]

I guess my hope was that I could get people who disagree with my views to engage substantively with them by hinting that I have sufficient knowledge to weigh in here. However, that doesn't seem to have been very effective, and your point that posting here may simply be a waste of time is well-taken.

[foobarian]

Time may not be relevant to an AI system but those of us hoping the AIs would help us out with the FTL drives may end up a bit disappointed :-)