[dilippkumar]

> 10 years

From the Congressional research service's report on immigration backlog [1] (note: this was before covid), for applicants from India, the projected backlogs for various employment-based green card applications applying in 2020 were:

    EB-1: 8 years.
    EB-2: 195 years.
    EB-3: 27 years.

Projecting out to 2030, the report says (for Indian applicants):

    EB-1: 18 years.
    EB-2: 436 years.
    EB-3: 48 years.

I performed a linear extrapolation using the 2020 and 2030 estimates. Two points and a straight line through them gives:

         eb-1 eb-2 eb-3
    2024 12   292  36
    2023 11   268  34
    2022 10   244  32
    2021 9    220  30
    2020 8    195  27
    2019 7    171  25
    2018 6    147  23
    2017 5    123  21
    2016 4    99   19
    2015 3    75   17
    2014 2    51   15
    2013 1    27   13

All numbers in years. The numbers are rounded up to the next highest integer. Note that a straight line through these two points isn't necessarily the correct model but whatever. Also, the covid era immigration policy moved a bunch of dates around, so this may not be as accurate. But it is still the best numbers I could find.

In any case, it is reasonable to assume that anyone with a priority date of 2017 or so will likely retire before your priority date is current.

You (and me) will probably spend an entire career paying for social security and never be eligible for it.

[1]. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46291

[junar]

Why do you think this? According to this chart, citizens of India can receive Social Security benefits with 10 years of work.

https://www.ssa.gov/international/countrylist4.htm

[dragonwriter]

> citizens of India can receive Social Security benefits with 10 years of work.

This is about exceptions to the rule preventing payments outside the United States after 6 months, and is based on more than 10 years of work by the qualified worker.

But the actual worker needs to be a citizen or a legal permanent resident (“green card” holder) [0] to be eligible to either receive benefits themselves or have dependents receive benefits based on their eligibility.

[0] Actually, there’s a few other categories like certain refugees and asylees, but not, general dual-intent non-immigrant visa holders (like H-1B workers.)

[junar]

Do you have a source?

I think you're confusing Supplemental Security Income (SSI) with Social Security retirement benefits. Those are two different things.

[dilippkumar]

I genuinely did not know this. Thanks for sharing!

[robofanatic]

Can the person be Non-US citizen?

[junar]

Yes, the whole point of this list is for non-US citizens. The following brochure provides more details (see in particular page 4 and pages 7-8).

https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10137.pdf

[dragonwriter]

Again, note this is about payments for people who have qualified for them either as a qualified worker or as a dependent of one while the recipient is outside of the United States, it is not about the status required to be the worker on the basis of whose eligibility payments are made.

Those are two completely different issues.

[hamstergene]

This could be just the reason why Congress is turning their attention to work visas.

IIRC green card problem began simultaneously with H1B problem, between 2005-2008. It makes sense: if the major entry to the immigration pipeline ends up 75% of Indian nationals, of course the exit for India-born (due to per-country diversity rule) is jammed.

I know backlog growth has a few unrelated causes adding up together, but at least 90% of the mess correlates very well with overuse of H1B and L1B (transfers) by odd consultancy businesses. Other factors don’t seem as important, for example, China has the same population size as India, but its wait time has been growing several times slower. Both problems are clearly connected.

[robofanatic]

Math has nothing to do with the way USCIS works. You never know when/how they move priority dates or make everything "current".