[SomeCallMeTim]

What bugs me about Settlers isn't that it's got too much luck, it's that I can pretty much tell who is going to win (or at least one of two) based on the initial settlement placement. Or at least who's going to lose. And it's pretty much completely no fun to play a game where the result is preordained that you'll lose.

Speaking of settlement placement: There aren't enough rolls in a game of Catan for the distribution of rolls to come out as you'd expect them. I've played a game where more 12s were rolled than 6s (though OMG were there a lot of 8s). It's not bad dice -- it's just the normal result of a "random" distribution when you're not generating that many results.

So a HUGE part of the strategy that the article misses is to maximize your DISTRIBUTION of numbers. I don't care if there's an 8/9/10 combo available for your second settlement; if you already have 8 & 9, you're much better off with a 3/4/5 combo (assuming you have none of those). Otherwise you're stuck with a feast or famine situation; sure you might be lucky, but you might instead be resource-starved for large parts of the game.

I actually picked up a "Deck of Dice" [1] to use with Catan, which is 36 cards that have a regular distribution of results of rolling two dice, but haven't given it a try yet to see if it makes Catan feel different. It seems like it might play a lot different; I really should give that a try... :)

[1] http://www.boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/5460/the-deck-of-dice

[Someone]

I disagree. Going for the low-variance option is a good idea if you do not want to lose, but not one if you want to win.

Consider a game where one player gets two items for every roll above 7, another two items for every roll below 7, and a third one item for every roll that is not 7. With any not perfectly even distribution of rolls, one of the first two players will have the highest production, and the other of the two the lowest. There is no set of throws that will give the last player the most produce.

[anthonyb]

Except that rolling high vs. low vs. a balance of both all have equal probabilities.

[gte910h]

A good distribution of numbers is a dominent strategy in catan due to the robber taking half your goods if you have more than 7 cards when a robber is rolled.

Late game overclustering (aka, being on too few numbers) is very brittle to rolls of 7 and additionally to the robber stopping production there as well.

[anthonyb]

I find that it's not so much a balanced distribution of numbers, but that you don't have to cash in 4 for 1 for a resource that you need.

Also, you don't need a deck of dice - just draw on an old pack of cards with a permanent marker :)

[SomeCallMeTim]

Ports are good, sure. I'm not saying it's the ONLY strategy. Just that it's a major bit of strategy that happens before the game even starts. You can certainly choose a spot near a port at the start, though I wouldn't recommend putting an initial settlement on a port. You need the most resource production you can manage early on.

Already got the deck of dice. I don't actually have any extra old packs of cards -- I have a couple, but I'm not a big card game player. Well, I used to play Magic, but writing on Magic cards just seems wrong. ;)