[scarmig]

Luck is a factor, but interpersonal dynamics and alliances are most important, in my experience.

How to win: always be a moderate second while limiting the routes for first to win, concurrently reserve at least two separate routes to victory for yourself, and don't let the game get too lopsided. Then as the end draws near, finish it in a turn.

It would be interesting to have a Catan-AI competition. Does the Catan server allow bots?