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by bartislartfast 1150 days ago
Wikipedia

> In the next 2,000 years the sea level is predicted to rise > by 2–3 m (6–10 ft) if the temperature rise peaks at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), > by 2–6 m (6–19 ft) if it peaks at 2 °C (3.6 °F) and > by 19–22 m (62–72 ft) if it peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F)

Additionally

> If temperature rise stops at 2 °C (3.6 °F) or at 5 °C (9.0 °F), the sea level would still continue to rise for about 10,000 years. In the first case it will reach 8–13 m (26–42 ft) above pre-industrial level, and in the second 28–37 m (92–12 ft).

It is over 2000 years though. By 2100 the absolute worst case scenarios have sea level rise at about 2m

(note: I rounded down halves of ft to make it more readable, but the metres are unchanged)

1 comments

You got one source. There are other sources that say it will happen sooner. Many other sources and these sources are not obscure.

Given multiple sources saying different things, It's hard to predict. Though what we are seeing are feedback loops that are causing exponential effects. I would say although we don't know... before 2100 is a realistic and viable possibility.

Gambling solely on 2000 years because it's a more convenient prediction would be unwise.

Either way, even if we don't know, now if sea levels do rise at a pace that will occur before 2100 we would eventually see it and adjust our reaction speed accordingly.

> Given multiple sources saying different things, It's hard to predict. Though what we are seeing are feedback loops that are causing exponential effects.

> Gambling solely on 2000 years because it's a more convenient prediction would be unwise.

I agree with both of these things. It's all so unpredictable.

But I do think there's a sort of terror-cult around climate change which is not very helpful. The extreme doom scenarios are easier for people to reject and disbelieve and they make people sceptical of changes that are actually, demonstrably happening already.