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by sokoloff 1147 days ago
If there’s a way to ensure I get paid, I’m willing to wager a lot of money that US unemployment will be less than 40% in Dec 2030.
2 comments

Unemployment in the 40% range is beyond total societal collapse. The unemployment rate in Ukraine is 11% and they are currently being invaded. Sudan's unemployment rate was still under 20% while they were in a civil war.

So the OP is probably using "unemployment rate" incorrectly. But if they are in fact using the International Labor Organization's definition, then this is probably a self-correcting problem. Society will collapse and those working on the research an implementation of AI and robotics will find themselves on the streets begging for scraps (or getting hacked up by machete-welding gangs), instead of working on building robots to displace workers long before they achieve success.

Don't underestimate what a strong leader can achieve with an army of starving people willing to do practically anything to feed their families.

> Don't underestimate what a strong leader can achieve with an army of starving people willing to do practically anything to feed their families.

When I allow myself to think about what sort of world this technology will bring, this is generally how it ends.

This is a hard bet to take because we also don't know what other changes will take effect by then.

Perhaps the government reclassifies full-time employment to mean 24 hours/week. Now everyone can stay employed full-time, but the same number of human hours of work are getting done.

In any event, I don't think this will happen by 2030, but by 2040, absolutely.