[TheAceOfHearts]

Solar flare risk is underestimated since it's not something we've previously experienced in full force. Based on conversations I've had with electrical engineers that work for a national power company, they don't have any measures in place to protect us from solar flares bringing down the full power grid.

A sufficiently powerful solar flare event would probably lead to millions of deaths, as I understand it.

[codethief]

> […] bringing down the full power grid. A sufficiently powerful solar flare event would probably lead to millions of deaths

Wait, how did we go from "bringing down the full power grid" to "millions of deaths" so quickly?

[yamtaddle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcOb3Dilzjc

Connections, episode 1, "The Trigger Effect".

TL;DW shit gets very, very dicey in a matter of days if the power goes out—and most of our ways of recovering with any speed rely on power so if it goes out for most or all of the world at once, that's extremely bad.

If it hit the wrong time of year, I could easily see a global power outage killing millions in the very first day. Loss of air conditioning and heating could push it into the millions all on their own.

[SirMaster]

I mean wouldn't most food spoil and tons of secondary effects of not having power for a long time?

Some people think that 90% of people in the USA would die in a year if the electric grid completed failed.

As far as I understand we don't have the parts to repair the grid in any reasonably timely manner.

https://emptaskforce.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/A-Call-to...

[dallyo]

Yeah I think that's a stretch. Likely there would be deaths from hospitals not having power etc. but I can't imagine it being at that scale. Secondary effects from the economic fallout might be worse. This kind of reminds me of the y2k non-event though.

[hanselot]

Well, I'm not a mathematician, but I will hazard that since we have a global population of somewhere around 8 billion we can ask ChatGPT (the cheap one to draw up an estimate for us). Sadly it doesn't wanna be more specific, however I am willing to entertain the number could reach millions. Just the impact on air traffic would be catastrophic, nevermind whatever happens to all the satellites that didn't exist for the last one.

```It's difficult to give an accurate estimate of the number of lives that could be lost in the event of a global-scale transformer destruction due to a Carrington-level solar storm, as there are many variables that could affect the outcome. However, I can provide some information that may be helpful in making an estimate.

A report by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) suggests that a large-scale transformer failure due to a geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) could result in widespread and prolonged power outages, affecting multiple states or even the entire country. The report estimates that the total economic impact of such an event in the United States could range from $1 trillion to $2 trillion, and that recovery could take years.

If we assume that the impact of a GMD-induced transformer failure would be proportionate to the global population, then it's reasonable to assume that the number of lives lost could be in the hundreds of thousands or even millions. This is because prolonged power outages could lead to a wide range of consequences, including shortages of food and water, breakdowns in transportation systems, and disruptions to medical care.

However, it's important to note that the actual number of lives lost would depend on many factors, including the severity and duration of the power outages, the availability of resources and emergency services, and the ability of individuals and governments to respond effectively to the crisis.```

[dallyo]

> Sadly it doesn't wanna be more specific

Typical frustrating GTP :)

That's an interesting response from it, but I would not trust gpt at all to make this kind of estimation - it will only regurgitate permutations of the information that's already out there, and I don't think anyone really knows.

But yes you are probably right that I've underestimated.