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by the_mitsuhiko 1152 days ago
Russia killed a lot more than just its tech industry. While the real impact of this won’t show up for 20 years the impact will be severe.

I’m pretty sure Russia will try very hard to attract foreign labor and immigration in the next years to fill some of the gaps that the country has to fill now.

5 comments

their treatment of their existing ethnic minorities will make that fairly difficult. the obvious immigrants for them to take would be refugees from the middle east, but I doubt many of them will want to go to Russia.
The obvious source of immigrants are the CIS countries, that's where 90%+ of the current immigration comes from. Also in the past it had no problem attracting millions of immigrants as long as the currency exchange was favorable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Russia
Low skilled labor is never going to be a problem while Russia maintains good relationships with Central Asian dictators. Before pandemic Russia had more than 2 million immigrants from that region, all sending money home — it is a major source of cash for those countries. Russian society is racist, but not to the extent when it will make the life of those immigrants unbearable.
Why do you say the real impact will take 20 years to appear? I’d say it will be even less, but the market and salaries for IT will grow higher as the brain drain intensifies.
Because that's about the time it takes for the generation of Russians that are born (or not born) right now to enter the labor force.
If this abomination of a war will continue for a few more years, they (I cannot say “we” anymore, even though I’m Russian), they will have to resort to bona fide gulags to maintain their workforce. This is how it has happened before.
> I’m pretty sure Russia will try very hard to attract foreign labor and immigration in the next years to fill some of the gaps that the country has to fill now.

Good luck...

While Russia's reputation is in shatters in the west, I'm not sure if this is true for India, China, Pakistan and other countries. Also Russia's Wagner troupes are currently kicking out European ones in Africa, so I wouldn't be surprised if the reputation of Russia will be good enough for immigration in Africa either. This might very well be a solvable problem for Russia if they really want to.
Good thing Russia is known to be such a welcoming environment for people of colour.
Tbf, it’s not welcoming for everyone. The issue you pointed out is of little to no importance for educated people. For uneducated - yes, but mostly in “the center”. If you understand russian names, you may see yourself in TFA that most of those interviewed aren’t even of slavic origin, at least by father (neither am I, if that’s important for some reason).
The greatest Russian writer ever was black, Alexander Pushkin. Further the Russians tend to sympathise with subjects of racism as they for the most parts of the previous centuries were subjected to racism by countries to the west of them.
> The greatest Russian writer ever was black, Alexander Pushkin.

Wiki says his great grandfather was black. I am not sure how you jumped to the conclusion that Pushkin was black.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Pushkin

Isn't that the distinction used by at least some people in US - you're black if you had any black ancestors (at least in traced history)?
Is this a joke in Russia, i.e. people referring to him as black in order to lessen the view of Russia's outlook to foreigners? I've never heard people refer to Pushkin as being black (and his parents indeed aren't), besides his great grandfather.
I guess you can tell us the percentage of someone’s blood that has to be black for them to be black. What is the percentage?
Oh, the great old anti-imperialism and victimhood of r-country. This story flies much better with people not exposed to russian language and prevalence of ethnic slur in it.
That's a laugh riot, as a Russian I've heard plenty of racist crap from other Russians unfortunately.
And the greatest Russian rock singer was Korean.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Tsoi

> ever was black

1/64th black…

His grand-grandfather came from Ethiopia... Isn't it 1/8th?
Nobody says that Obama is half-black...
Just like Alexandre Dumas...
> The greatest Russian writer ever was black, Alexander Pushkin.

Is this using the Elizabeth Warren native american logic ?

Yup, and so am I. I'm also a Viking, when it suits me (I look more like a Viking although it's much further back in my ancestry than my Native American great grandfather. I get to be a French Gaulois and a Romney Gypsy too. The real question is how can I profit by what I identify as...
Russia isn't known as welcoming to Central Asians either, yet they still (used to?) come there to work. Money talks.
If all you require a warm bodies to do menial tasks or low- to no-skilled labor? Sure, Pakistan and Africa will be happy to provide these.

If you are trying to rebuild your high-tech industry, however, you require educated people.

And why would these go to Russia if they can go to Europe or the US? Immigrating to Russia with possibly be easier, but it’s still Russia…

> If you are trying to rebuild your high-tech industry, however, you require educated people.

If Russia makes it easier with visas and the salary is good enough, many Indians would happily move there.

Nigeria and Ethiopia are both brimming with tech workers that are happy to relocate for money and better prospects. Whether a post-war Russia can offer either remains to be seen.
Russia's attractivity to foreign workers depends the availability of convertible money (sending money out of Russia is currently probably a bit of a problem and will stay so for a long time) and their security (which is probably not a given, with the rise of fascist state the security of foreign workers will not be the highest item on the list). So while everyone likes oil money, not many people will be likely to immigrate to Russia for that.
2/3 of world's population won't have any issue converting currency to yuan if BRICS decide to use it for mutual commerce (though I doubt a WW3 won't happen before this happens).
India will never agree.
Is it because of occasional skirmishes in Himalayas or something else?
Russian Federation as a sovereign state is barely 32 years old. You are talking about some impact being visible in 20 years, but that is an impossibly long planning period for RF.