[mbbui]

Tbh, chatGPT caught the world by surprise. Especially the fact that it can do in-context learning so well is a big surprise even for experts in the field. You can see these from many interviews of experts in the fields for example https://www.therobotbrains.ai/copy-of-raluca-ada-popa. So no one really knows how close LLM to AGI. Most of ppl who has been working on AGI thinks that this is no where near. But again, if they are still processing what chatGPT is capable of, how would they know for sure.

[kvetching]

I feel that most people that were "working in AGI" are having trouble coming to terms with the success of deep learning. They are still grasping at straws and saying it still can't learn, can't generalize beyond it's training data, they're not robust or reliable etc... Problems that can be overcome.

People like Ben Goertzel believe that GOFAI / Symbolic AI is going to be revived from the AI Winter era like how deep learning was. Here's a recent quote from his Twitter: "LLMs are very powerful and will almost surely be part of the first system to achieve HLAGI. I suspect more like 20% than 80% though...."