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It seems to me, from a copyright perspective, all commercial use of generative AI depends on whether the output is transformative fair use (vs derived work). While the courts will have its say, ultimately whether new rules are carved out or not is going to be again (as all copyright law is) based on commercial interests - I have the feeling that the potential productivity upside across all industries (and in terms of national interests) is going to be big enough that it'll work itself out largely in the favor of generative AI. That being said, IMO, that's completely separate from the safety issues (that exist now and won't go away even if somehow, all commercial use is banned): Urbina, Fabio, Filippa Lentzos, Cédric Invernizzi, and Sean Ekins. “Dual Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Powered Drug Discovery.” Nature Machine Intelligence 4, no. 3 (March 2022): 189–91. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-022-00465-9. Bilika, Domna, Nikoletta Michopoulou, Efthimios Alepis, and Constantinos Patsakis. “Hello Me, Meet the Real Me: Audio Deepfake Attacks on Voice Assistants.” arXiv, February 20, 2023. http://arxiv.org/abs/2302.10328 Mirsky, Yisroel, Ambra Demontis, Jaidip Kotak, Ram Shankar, Deng Gelei, Liu Yang, Xiangyu Zhang, Wenke Lee, Yuval Elovici, and Battista Biggio. “The Threat of Offensive AI to Organizations.” arXiv, June 29, 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.15764. I don't think most people have thought through all the ways perfect text, image, voice, and soon video generation/replication will upend society, or all the ways that the LLMs will be abused... As for AGI xrisk. I've done some reading, and since we don't know the limits of the current AI paradigm, and we don't know how to actually align an AGI, I think now is a perfectly cromulent time to be thinking about it. Based on my reading, I think the people ringing alarm bells are right to be worried. I don't think anyone giving this serious thought is being mendacious. Bowman, Samuel R. "Eight Things to Know about Large Language Models." arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.00612 (2023). https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.00612. Ngo, Richard, Lawrence Chan, and Sören Mindermann. “The Alignment Problem from a Deep Learning Perspective.” arXiv, February 22, 2023. http://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00626. Carlsmith, Joseph. “Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?” arXiv, June 16, 2022. http://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353. I think Ian Hogarth's recent FT article https://archive.is/NdrNo is the best summary of where we are why we might be in trouble, for those that don't care for arXiv papers. |