[bumby]

That...doesn't follow because F9 and Starship are different systems.

Mercury and Gemini both had good track records. Apollo and Shuttle, not so much.

Put differently, how much would you be willing to bet that their FMEA has caught literally every failure mode possible?

[jjk166]

Well in the case of the Shuttle both accidents that killed people were due to previously identified failure modes. At the end of the day, risk will always be a number greater than 0%. At some point someone is going to have to make a judgement call that the risk is low enough to proceed, and sometimes that call is going to be wrong.

[bumby]

The failure modes may have been known but the effects were not. A FMEA needs both to work.

Regarding the foam, they had a difficult time even recreating it after the fact. It was apparently only on a lark that they decided to turn the gun up to 11 and, viola, now the foam had the physical properties capable of damaging the tile catastrophically. So, yes, they knew the mechanism of foam shedding but did not realize the effect properly.

With the o-rings, they similarly just didn’t have the test data for this conditions. They incorrectly extrapolated on the test data they did have.