The Xlinks Morocco-UK interconnect is building 10.5 GW of renewable generation, 20 GWh of battery storage and a 3.6 GW high-voltage direct current interconnector to carry solar and wind-generated electricity from Morocco to the UK. Total cost estimated at 16bn GBP, with break-even at 48 GPB/MWH. Hinkley Point C is a 3.2 GWe nuclear plant and is currently estimated at 32.7 GBP with a total energy price of 92.5 GPB/MWH.
Right now importing renewables from thousands of kilometers away is hugely cheaper than nuclear, and the economics are only getting more stark. Not every problem is solved with renewables (yet), and nuclear has its place. But anyone who looks at the plummeting price of renewables and thinks “just build more nuclear” isn’t paying attention to the economics.
The peak UK power consumption is 30GW, so this would make a huge impact. But the UK also needs to do something about its deficient power grid which does not allow plentiful Scottish wind power to be transported to South England where most of the demand lies:
Somehow this estimation is taken at face value, and yet:
> Hinkley Point C is a 3.2 GWe nuclear plant and is currently estimated at 32.7 GBP
This is taken at actual value. Even though original cost was estimated at 12.4 bn GBP. A lot of cost and budget overruns for nuclear plants are purely political, amidst a rising ocean of FUD.
Ernst & Young (EY) has found that an average power and utility megaproject is delivered 35% over budget and two years behind schedule
Of the megaprojects surveyed, 64% were delayed and 57% were over budge. Almost three-quarters of hydropower, water, coal and nuclear infrastructure projects were over budget by 49% on average,
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So that estimated 16bn GBP is very likely to be significantly over 25bn GBP by the time it's completed.
"Data shows the avg. 50MW PV construction project delays cost $2M. The average solar construction project is delayed by about 20% with the consequences hovering around $2M in costs."
"we assessed the construction costs affiliated with 401 electricity infrastructure projects worldwide. We found that these projects collectively involved $820 billion worth of investment, and represented more than 325,000 MW of installed capacity and 8500 km of transmission lines. Taken together, these projects incurred $388 billion in cost overruns, equivalent to a mean cost escalation of $968 million per project, or a 66.3 percent overrun per project."
Even a 66.3% cost overrun would still make this project cheaper, and would be vastly less than the (so far) 200% overrun of Hinkley Point C. And I'm taking those numbers at your word, without poking into them for details.
Most nuclear power plants incurred time overruns, due to both engineering issues and public opposition. Considering the long development times of such plants and the large amount of capital required, these time overruns likely caused large increases in interest charges and contributed significantly to the large levels of overruns seen [29]. Moreover, as Table 3 indicates, the most severe cost overruns for nuclear power were confined to the United States and the 1980s, it is likely that they were significantly influenced by the nuclear power accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. These accidents resulted in “regulatory ratcheting” where safety requirements were significantly altered in the middle of construction periods, with meaningful impacts on equipment needs,
construction designs, labor, and materials.
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After nearly 30 years of FUD and underinvestment I'm not surprised these projects now take longer. There's regulatory capture, political issues etc. It's possible that they now require safety levels way beyond any reason (Fukushima, commissioned in 1971, and hit by an earthquake and a tsunami at or exceding its safety baseline resulted in 1 death directly attributable to the accident).
Unfortunately, there are very few good-faith discussions around nuclear power, it's always emotionaly charged and manipulative. That's why you end up in situations like Germany: https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1647799729734971396
Look, you are obviously very passionate about nuclear power. And you may be right that nuclear's bad economics stem from unfairness. And it might even be true that there is some hypothetical world where people stop being so unfair, and in that world good/safe nuclear will suddenly become cheap for the first time ever.
But we have to live in the real world, and here in the real world we need to build an enormous amount of low-carbon power generation in a ridiculously short amount of time. And right now nuclear prices are not comparable to wind/solar prices as we actually build nuclear today. This holds even when you apply the most generous assumptions when comparing them. And non-nuclear renewables are getting cheaper every day, something that just isn't happening to nuclear.
So fine, build some nuclear around the edges. Baseload is great! But people need to recognize that short of a political and technological revolution of which there is currently no sign whatsoever, solar/wind/storage are going to form the bulk of a decarbonized grid. So let's please get on with making that happen quickly, because every month we burn fossil fuels brings more future devastation.
> But we have to live in the real world, and here in the real world we need to build an enormous amount of low-carbon power generation in a ridiculously short amount of time.
We do. Moreover, we need to overbuild those sources by yet nknown amounts because they are intermittent.
> This holds even when you apply the most generous assumptions when comparing them. And non-nuclear renewables are getting cheaper every day, something that just isn't happening to nuclear.
Are they getting cheaper enough? Including all the required overbuilding and all the (yet non-existent) grid-scale storage that is required for renewable energy?
> So fine, build some nuclear around the edges. Baseload is great!
Indeed. Baseload is great. And when talking about renewables their proponents almost never talk about it. Or about daily power fluctuations. About requirement spikes etc. Because we just have to believe that there's some magical solution just around the corner.
And yeah, that revolution you're talking about is definitely not going to happen precisely of the emotionally-charged discourse. And we don't really need a tech. revolution for nuclear. We're already pretty capable of building them quickly, given the political will.
The great renewable project project we're talking about? It started in 2018. On top of that "As of November 2021, [cable production] production is planned to start in 2024, and it will take four years to produce the cables required by the project." [1] Expected to be completed by 2030. [2]
So, about 10 years or more. On par with some nuclear stations. Expect costs overruns to be just as on par.
Meanwhile in China. Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant. Construction of each reactor is about 6 years. Total nameplate capacity is now 6GW. Estimated cost of construction: 16 bln USD.
> So let's please get on with making that happen quickly, because every month we burn fossil fuels brings more future devastation.
Meanwhile Germany shut down its nuclear plants and replaced them with fossil fuels. Additionally 13% of the country is given over to corn to create biofuel which is also burned.
It's hard to be passionate about these moronic things. Especially since the renewable revolution needs to bring in probably as much of a technological revolution to become truly scalable (e.g. grid storage required at these scales is literally nowhere to be found).
Co-signed. Nuclear has a potentially key role for dealing with things like heavy industrial demand in areas where there might not be great options for storing enough renewable power to make it through down periods for renewables, but the ramp up time is considerable and there’s plenty of usage we can shift before we need to tackle the most demanding customers. The only honest way to advocate for nuclear power is paired with maximum renewable deployment – otherwise it starts to look like the known strategy of arguing for nuclear power to delay reducing fossil fuel industry profits, knowing that it’ll be 3-4 decades before anything changes.
Fine, just start. Find a place that has willing neighbors, then spend 10-20 years building it and plz prevent cost overruns. It'll be ready too late to contribute to our near-term (2030) goals. But not for the later goals of course.
Good start building ASAP anyways, but not at the expense of things that are faster to deploy.
There is a chance I cannot compute (not a specialist) that the long drought wave in Europe - meaning, the lack of certainty of the reliable flow of rivers - may impose extra burden on the selection of eligible fitting places.
You mean Germany right now after it stupidly shut down its last nuclear reactors, and is dependent on coal, and imports from France (75% of whose electricity comes from nuclear).
In a different comment, I mentioned `40-50 years of momentum against them`, yes, that Germany indeed.
In my native Netherlands we're looking to build 2 nuclear plants. I doubt they'll ever be built, as they take a long time to build and the current public in opinion is mildly in favor I suppose (if that at all) but that will swing up and down over the build time.
But yes, shutting them down at this moment is at least bad timing, but the preparations for that have been going on for years apparently. I'm not a nuclear power plant operator so I don't know what is involved with extending operation once certain decisions have been made.
Right now importing renewables from thousands of kilometers away is hugely cheaper than nuclear, and the economics are only getting more stark. Not every problem is solved with renewables (yet), and nuclear has its place. But anyone who looks at the plummeting price of renewables and thinks “just build more nuclear” isn’t paying attention to the economics.