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by gdavisson 1153 days ago
I don't know about that particular analysis, but there've been a number of such claims that don't stand up (mostly because, as you ask, the districts themselves don't follow Benford's law). See, for example, "Inappropriate Applications of Benford’s Law Regularities to Some Data from the 2020 Presidential Election in the United States" by Walter R. Mebane, Jr. [0], and "Why do Biden's votes not follow Benford's Law?" by Matt Parker [1]. This fits the general pattern that there's been a lot of suspicion raised about fraud in the 2020 election, but none of it actually seems to pan out.

[0] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etx0k1nLn78

1 comments

It seems like the Benford's Law distribution should be adjustable by the specifics of its input data.