[sebzim4500]

I think the chance that the second stage survives reentry on the first attempt is almost zero anyway.

IIRC Musk said something like that in his second interview with Tim Dodd.

[mabbo]

True, but remember he only gave falcon heavy a 50/50 shot of getting high enough before exploding to not damage the launch site on its first launch.

Musk is incredibly optimistic about schedules, and pessimistic about launches.

[simondotau]

It would be hard for him not to be pessimistic about launches given the early years of SpaceX. Not even their 150-odd successful Falcon 9 launches/landings would erase the scar tissue.

[bombcar]

“We will launch very soon and it will explode very big”