[tedivm]

I live in Chicago and I really think it's just competition.

Take the 2551 W. Cermak Road location. There's a Costco, Aldi, Target, Marianos, for big name shops, but then there's also at least 11 other smaller local or specialty shops (Betheleham Food Mart, Guzman Grocery, Helens Grocery, etc etc etc).

Walmart just can't complete in big cities. I can find something cheaper and higher quality than Walmart just by walking down the street. Walmart does well in smaller towns where there isn't as much competition, and where they can really push their specialty services. I would never get my eyes examined at a Walmart Eye Center, for instance, since I can find three other places that are closer to me. If you're in a smaller town though those things are super convenient.

[dmix]

There was a sudden rise in competition in the last 5yrs that doubled their losses at 4 different locations?

[tedivm]

Yeah, absolutely- in the last five years people have moved to delivery in a way that they didn't before. Walmart offered a delivery service but was late to the game- I can get whole foods delivery directly, and instacart for other things. During covid a lot more people took advantage of these services and got used to it, driving up those loses further.

I live here- instacart even has the smaller grocery stores now. Why would I ever go to walmart, or use walmart for delivery, when there's so many options that are better on quality and price? Not only that but the niche stores are also really nice.

The only time I go to Walmart is when I'm visiting my in laws in Indiana. There are two other grocery stores there we'll go to for most things, but if we need anything beyond simple grocery stores then Walmart is the only option.

The market in Chicago is different though. Look at Target, which is doing pretty well in Chicago. They don't have four locations, they have at least 22 that I've counted. They've ditched the extras (eye care, pharmacy, etc) and focused on having convenient locations with lower overhead.

[dmix]

Your argument would be more persuasive if you talked about wages. Which is likely the thing that sealed the deal given the low margin business Walmart operates, far more than typical retail operations. Here in Canada my nephew is being paid $20/hr at a big box because they are desperate for workers. Obviously (to a much smaller degree) it was also in combination with the significant increase in shoplifting and security risks for shoppers/workers that typically creates, and the pressure on hiring, which the typical violence in American Walmart stores was bad enough as it was.

But the wage growth + consequences of the "summer of love" when people realized there are no consequences for mass low level property theft happened in 2020... Same with wage growth around the same time with COVID so that doesn't sound like the whole story either.

Your personal anecdotes about local competition in the city and stuff about instacart ignores the massive price/supply advangage that Walmart has, and aren't very persuasive. Typically you'd also see those trends in other urban areas... Why are these 4 stores in Chicago unique? And why 5yrs ago? Are you saying small stores you love + mid tier competitors all suddenly started opening in 2018?

Because otherwise I'd agree that delivery (see: amazon) growth was what killed it but the doubling of losses started happening in 2018. Before COVID.

And there's tons of stats about Walmart's delivery business was booming during COVID.

There has to be some more stuff that happened around then, in combination with these multiple factors.