[furyofantares]

I don't think your Zynga numbers make any sort of sense.

You imply Zynga is able to clone a game before the original even reaches 10% of its expected sales. Even mobile and facebook games tend to make most of their money early in their life. I don't think it's possible for Zynga to identify and clone a game this quickly.

You also imply that once Zynga enters the competition, it takes 90-100% of the sales away from the original. This is enormous. Zynga does add some value to games, and it cutens them up a bit too, but you claim it's mostly substitutable. So why are 90% of the people who would have found and played the original game now choosing the Zynga game?

And finally, you imply that Zynga only attracts a marginal number of players, despite the fact that Zynga spends most of its money on marketing to attract new players.

I don't think your numbers are anywhere near the ballpark.