[SketchySeaBeast]

I think ChatGPT reduces a lot of the friction - you can ask it to piece things together quickly and it produces it in a more easily digestible format, especially when compared to the google + read cycle. I know some people are trying to learn things with ChatGPT when they wouldn't before - it's easier to build something in a conversational manner and it's harder to pick up the pieces when StackOverflow steers you wrong.

I agree with your assertion that non-trivial things will weed out "programmers", I just think that ChatGPT will get people further and that definition of "non-trivial" will shift a bit - possibly far enough people will have an easier time leaking their API keys through Frankenstein apps they post online.