My memory is vague but I seem to recall hearing of NK missiles heading in Japan's direction a number of times in recent years. Is my memory correct? Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries?
> Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries?
As long as North Korea's regional neighbors and the United States do little more than condemning the launches, yes. We know these launches pose a risk to civilians on the ground, but little can be done to stop them short of bombing the launch sites. And bombing North Korea would be an act of war, and the consequences would be unpredictable. [1] There are rumors that CYBERCOM has been able to stop North Korean missile launches in the past with covert cyberattacks, but whether that's true or not would be classified. [2]
If the U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan. The missile could be programmed to overfly Pyongyang, and crash into the Yellow Sea. Though China would probably deploy watercraft to recover the missile's debris to study its technology, if it doesn't detonate.
> But I do agree resuming hostilities would lead to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes.
Could you expand on this? Perhaps naively, I would expect the US & allies to be able to bomb all NK military assets and topple the inferior government easily & quickly. It wouldn't be another guerilla ground war, we just want to destroy their military capabilities.
I guess there is still the concern that China would back NK, but I can't see what China benefits from that. A war with other superpowers to protect a poor, weak, unpredictable regime?
A buffer State. The PRC doesn’t want the Korean Peninsula used as a land-based route for an invasion of China by Japan, the US or Russia. Even if the DPRK is a problem, it’s also a barrier to entry for invading China and that’s good enough for the PRC to still support it.
North Korea has nuclear weapons. They have ICBMs that can hit west coast of US but few enough that maybe could be intercepted. They also have shorter range missiles that threaten South Korea and Japan.
North Korea has few enough nukes that first strike to take them out is possible. But would likely require using nukes. China, and much of the world, would not be happy. Acceptable if war has broken out, not to start a war.
DPRK is useful because it can inflict damage and threats without having its masters (most likely Russia or China) getting directly involved.
Also helpful to collect intelligence.
Sending missiles toward Japan directly hurts the economy of Japan and its political stability (which in returns, has positive effects that the competitors of Japan can reap).
And that’s one of those “fun” facts we learn in school that as I grow older I increasingly question the veracity or usefulness of saying it. It’s unclear whether Korea and the DPRK are even at war with each other in any usefully understood manner; just that they view each other as illegitimate sovereigns occupying their territory in an official manner, much like China and the PRC.
I think that North Korea and South Korea are still at war. Did the US ever declare war against North Korea? I thought that the US was there due to the UN getting involved. Skipping the need for the US to declare war.
I believe they've all been AUMFs (Authorizations for the Use of Military Force), effectively bypassing various checks and safeguards in place when starting formal wars.
> U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan
There really isn't a ballistic trajectory that wouldn't land in PRC or SKR waters, unless it's a (relatively) low flying cruise missile that overflys SKR waters and circles back to land inJapanese waters in east sea which is much more escalatory than lofting a high flying ballistic over air space. Practically there isn't a viable "proportional" response, especially if failure = ordnance lands in PRC or RU territory.
NK's rocketry program advancing at rapid rate. Look what where NK is, if they have to do flight tests, they're not going to fly over PRC, RU or SKR due to geopolitics. Sometimes they're sensible and do lofted trajectories into sea of Japan, but every once in a while they need to overfly some land for proper tests, and JP is what's left. Historic grievances a bonus. Extra bonus JP can't test/overfly back without landing in countries above. Geography of missile tests gets interesting, India has to do it over ocean where foreign sigint ships can gather data, US/RU/PRC all have large empty regions to test inland away from prying eyes.
As long as North Korea's regional neighbors and the United States do little more than condemning the launches, yes. We know these launches pose a risk to civilians on the ground, but little can be done to stop them short of bombing the launch sites. And bombing North Korea would be an act of war, and the consequences would be unpredictable. [1] There are rumors that CYBERCOM has been able to stop North Korean missile launches in the past with covert cyberattacks, but whether that's true or not would be classified. [2]
If the U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan. The missile could be programmed to overfly Pyongyang, and crash into the Yellow Sea. Though China would probably deploy watercraft to recover the missile's debris to study its technology, if it doesn't detonate.
[1] Note that North Korea did bomb the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong back in 2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong?uses...). Two civilians and two soldiers were killed, and a number of people were wounded, but the shelling did not trigger a conflict. North Korea also sank a South Korean warship the same year, killing 46, and it didn't cause a war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking?useskin=v...).
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-mi...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-mi...