[bakuninsbart]

Agreed, but let's not forget that Carnap started his AI company last year with the express goal of reaching AGI comparable to a 'retarded toddler' by 2030. Relatively simple generative AIs have come far far further than anyone really anticipated, and it is quite unclear if the last 20% to avg-human-level AGI will be much harder, impossible, or also suddenly be solved. I mean, hell, GPT4s context space is still relatively small, it doesn't have a memory, and is still producing quite impressive results in simple reasoning tasks.