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by spekcular
1170 days ago
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The items you listed are certainly problems, but p-values don't have much to do with them, as far as I can see. Poor power is an experimental design problem, not a problem with the analysis technique. Not reporting all analyses is a data censoring problem (this is what I understand "specification curve analysis" to mean, based on some Googling - let me know if I misinterpreted). Again, this can't really be fixed at the analysis stage (at least without strong assumptions on the form of the censoring). The replication crisis is a combination of these these two things, and other design issues. |
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(1) p-values make significance the target, and thus create incentives for underpowered studies, misspecified analyses, early stopping (monitoring significance while collecting data), and p-hacking.
(2) p-values separate crucial pieces of information. It represents a highly specific probability (of the observed data, given the null hypothesis is true), but does not include effect size or a comprehensive estimate of uncertainty. Thus, to be useful, p-values need to be combined with effect sizes and ideally simulations, specification curves, or meta-analyses.
Thus my primary problem with p-values is that they are an incomplete solution that is too easy to use incorrectly. Ultimately, they just don't convey enough information in their single summary. CIs, for example, are just as simple to communicate, but much more informative.