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by Nevermark
1165 days ago
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If it’s coin flipping, then winning 10 coin flips is 1 out of 1000. 20 flips, 1 out of 1 million. 30 flips, 1 out of a billion. 40 flips, 1 out of a trillion. With roulette, and overall gain (not a perfect score), say a ratio of 2 wins out of 3 bets, it takes more bets. But in this case we are talking about many roulette games, with a recognized group of people, often playing in tandem. at multiple casinos. The odds of their record of successes, as documented by the casinos, could be 1 out of billions or trillions easily. Maybe even more. |
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It's the pure math side I think is fun, because I find examples of people getting tricked by confidence intervals into developing blindspots to the randomness, and substituting "proof" for "very unlikely" fascinating. Comes from working in a lot of companies with ... sloppy ... methodology for their AB tests.
If you go to a casino and win 20 straight coin flips [or the equivalent in roulette or craps] don't you think they'd be pretty damn sure you cheated somehow?