[nh23423fefe]

Sure, have a different prior if you think those assumptions are relevant. i don't

    P(what if we're first?) ~ 0

    P(or FTL travel isn't possible in our universe?) ~ 1

[pas]

the Grabby Aliens argument is pretty good in establishing why it's likely that we're first-ish. are you familiar with that? or you think it's not convincing? (why?)

[blibble]

what's your basis for these assumptions?

[nh23423fefe]

Uniform distribution of appearance of life over stars.

Special relativity.