Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by d--b 1168 days ago
Noone predicted GPT. Even after AlphaGo, passing the Turing test was still a distant horizon. Passing the bar exam? Forget it! Everyone thought we’d have self driving cars before coding robots.

The lesson is we don’t fucking know what’s going to happen. Be humble people.
2 comments
apples_oranges 1168 days ago
Actually you can draw some conclusions from what's going on. If iPhone 7 is faster than your Mac Book Pro, you may assume that one day Apple Silicon will be fast and low power consumption. If you see that suddenly machine translation makes a noticeable leap, you can assume that some progress was made in machine language processing etc.

And actually a lot of people predicted GPT and more, one notable person is probably Ray Kurzweil. Some others are all the folks at Open AI to set out to make it a reality.

Nono, "Noone predicted GPT" is just not true, I think.

link
d--b 1168 days ago
In 2015? They knew they were going to make a chat bot. But they didn’t dream it would be THAT strong
link
progrus 1168 days ago
It is far easier for a computer to pass the bar exam than the Turing test: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox

Of course, this does not take away from the fact that ChatGPT gets at least a “C” on the text-based Turing test.

link