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But modeling is always a thing of probabilities, with a low confidence rating for getting it entirely right.

What you seems to have an issue with is how it's often reported on or used in politics... But the people actually creating the models are in my experience always aware that the results are never proving anything by themselves... And blaming the act of modeling for the actions of politicians and reporters is misguided, as they're just using whatever is convenient. If it wasn't a specific model, they'd find something else to validate whatever asinine bullshit they're peddling.