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by whiplash451 1172 days ago
I don't think that our experience in software engineering applies very well to understand what is happening with ChatGPT.

Here is the math I do, starting from the addressable market.

There are 60M professional workers in the US [1].

The number is probably similar in EU and APAC.

This yields ~200M professional workers in the world.

If 5% of them have a paid subscription, that's exactly how you get 10M paid subscribers.

Of course, the debate is around the 5%. The rate in the pure tech industry is much higher (10-20% around me), and it is probably much lower in other areas (e.g. architecture). But 5% as an average is not unrealistic.

[1] https://www.dpeaflcio.org/factsheets/the-professional-and-te...